UNIVERSITY STUDY TIPS LIB DEMS TO WIN LEEDS NORTH WEST!

12.00.00am UTC (GMT +0000) Thu 11th Nov 2004

A university study for The Independent has predicted that the Liberal Democrats will win Leeds North West at the general election which is expected in the spring.

The study by John Curtice, Professor of politics at Strathclyde University, has listed the seats that the Liberal Democrats would gain from Labour under the likely opinion poll levels of the 3 major parties which would give an 8.5 per cent swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats nationally. This would lead to the Lib Dems picking up 12 seats from Labour, including Leeds North West and 13 seats from the Conservatives.

The report states that Labour strategists are worried that a "Lib Dem effect" could cost the party scores of seats, especially if problems in Iraq remain at election time. It states that Labour's private polling estimates that some three million of its natural supporters may back the Liberal Democrats or abstain in a protest over Iraq.

The study adds to the growing evidence that the Lib Dems are likely to win Leeds North West. The Liberal Democrats had an excellent result in the local elections winning 9 out of 12 council seats across Leeds North West leaving the other parties trailing. This included taking all 3 seats from the beleaguered Conservative party in Otley & Yeadon. In total there are now 18 Leeds City Councillors representing part of Leeds NW (the other parties only have 6 each), so the Liberal Democrats are in pole position to win at the general election.

Greg Mulholland, Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Spokesperson for Leeds North West commented, "This latest study once again shows clearly that the Liberal Democrats can win in Leeds North West at the next general election".

Greg, who is already a Lib Dem Councillor in Leeds North West, adds "We are getting the same message on the doorstep, across Leeds North West: that people and sick and tired of Tony Blair and New Labour and they are turning to the Liberal Democrats in droves."

Notes:

1. Seats predicted by the study that the Lib Dems would gain from Labour: Falmouth and Cambourne; Colne Valley; Leeds North West; Reading East; Cardiff Central; Oldham East and Saddleworth; Bristol West; Birmingham Yardley; Aberdeen South; Rochdale; Edinburgh South; Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber.

2. Seats predicted that the Lib Dems would gain from the Conservatives: Taunton; Orpington; Surrey South West; Dorset West; Haltemprice and Howden; Isle of Wight; Eastbourne; Wells; Westmorland and Lonsdale; Totnes; Wiltshire North; Maidenhead; Dorset North.

3. The Liberal Democrats hold 9 out of 12 Leeds City Council seats in the 4 main wards that comprise most of Leeds North West. Due to the ward boundary changes, there are now parts of 6 other wards in Leeds North West and the Liberal Democrats have 6 councillors in these seats also (Moortown and Horsforth) leading to a total of 18 city councillors representing part of the seat.